倫敦達人 The Explorer

這一篇文章，我想談談在準備申論題考試的經驗。班上的白人同學會說自己只是考試前一晚熬夜苦讀，然後準備到考場上隨機發揮。當成績一發下來，很多白人還是可以拿到相當高的分數，一來他們在課堂上抓到了老師的思路，二來英語是白人的母語，就算是在考場上才臨時組織答案，也能夠讓改分的老師心甘情願地給高分（當然，也不是所有的白人都可以拿高分，我也看過白人的申論題考試被死當的）。我也曾觀察過第一次到英國留學的海外留學生（包括亞洲學生或北歐語系的學生），他們在準備申論題題型時，也是考前幾天才開始死背重點，然後硬著頭皮去考場。英文不是華人（或北歐人）的母語，臨場發揮，華人（或北歐人）可能沒有辦法像當地白人一樣洋洋灑灑地寫下一篇篇華麗動人的申論題答案。

每一次準備考試前，我先假設每一道申論考題的作文要一千六百字才能拿到『distinction（既七十分以上）』。假如我只有考前死背課堂重點，再假設這些精闢的考試重點只有三百字，那麼上考場的時候，就需要把這三百字發揮成一篇一千六百字的文章，一半的時間都拿來思考如何鋪陳整個答案，只剩一半的時間可以真正拿筆桿做答。考場上的考生難免會緊張，要是大腦只能記住了課堂重點的其中的兩百字，那麼這一篇一千八百字的文章等於是摻了水的米酒或高粱酒，絕對是達不到老師給高分的要求的。更有可能考生因為緊張，考場上連八百字都寫不出來。

當我準備每一題申論考題時，我會堅持寫一篇完整的申論題草稿，以一千六百字為基本要求，這樣的話，就算考場上緊張忘稿，還是可以寫出一千四百字的申論文。

你有沒有聽過每一次考生考完後在考場前聚集，一齊討論各自作答的篇數或頁面。有些學生會說自己寫了四面紙，每一行字之間都有空格。有的學生則會說自己連兩面紙都寫不滿，只有把死背的課堂重點原封不動地抄上去而已。讓我告訴你，一篇一千六百字的申論文是可以寫滿六面紙到七面紙，每一行字之間『沒有空格』！

我堅信『勤能補拙』，一次又一次的練習寫申論題，一次又一次的更新觀點與用詞文法，熟悉每一道申論題的正、反觀點。真到考場時，就可以很流暢地把自己的想法寫出來，就像是第八次默寫同一道申論題一樣。很多次，在寫答案的過程中，會突然發覺，考場上填寫的作文比考前模擬練習時寫得更精闢！

在上一篇提到考試的文章中我提到過有些講師（請不要對號入座），是典型的研究學者，課堂上愛講不講的，考試的時候出的申論題的題型都會直接告訴你，但就算告訴你，你也拿不到高分，因為他的得分條件訂在相當高的門檻，大部分的學生都能過，可是想拿超過七十分（distinction）的標準卻是比登天來難。有些教授，上課有條有理，但考試的時候會把往年的考題做一種細微的改變，看看學生的臨場的發揮及機智反應。我也遇過講師有非常嚴謹的學者習性及要求，學生達不到他的要求，不講情面，那就只有重考的命運！

了解教授及講師的給分門檻之後，再來就是要了解教師對每一道題目的『理想答案』的要求。老師會告訴你，他要求一段前言，一段或多段申論文（正反論點）與一段結尾。某些老師要看到學生具有獨立研究的能力，當你加入了一些課外讀物的觀點或數據，老師會給你分數！某些老師為了改分方便，他並不想看到你放入自己的觀點與引用他沒放在講義上的課外內容，所以當你加入了他不熟悉的觀點，老師反而會扣你分數！了解你的老師的脾氣比什麼都重要！

在CASS Business School就讀碩士班的這十一個月內，我們準碩士生必須應付兩場期中考與十一場期末考考試，其中有六科期末考是『純申論題』為主的考試，沒有任何的計算題。每一場考試兩個小時，通常是四題或六題不同型的申論題題目，考生要四選二，選擇兩題最有信心的題目做答。作答時的理想流程是每一題最多作答五十分鐘，最後剩下十到十五分鐘重新檢查已填寫的兩篇文章或補足一開始沒填寫齊全的正反論點。說了這麼多，我拿一題自己曾經準備過的申論題題目與草稿答案來說明我的應考方式吧。

（可能會考的申論題題型）

Public real estate securities (REITs) offer investors all the advantages of private real estate without its disadvantages. Discuss 

（默寫初稿的日期）

Mock Up Essay Answer prepared on 1 July 2011 (Draft Version) 

（前言）

REIT is a company that owns and operates income producing real estate. The US congress introduced the REIT structure under REIT Act of 1960 to make investment in large scale. In order to qualify as a REIT, it must company with certain provisions.

1. At least 75% of a REIT’s asset value must come from real estate, cash and government securities

2. No more than 5% of the value of the assets may consist of the securities of one issuer

3. At least 95% of gross income must come from dividends, interests, rents or gains from sale of certain assets

4. No more than 30% of REITs gross income can be derived from sale of real estate held for less than four years or securities held for less than six months

5. At least 90% of the REIT taxable income must be distributed to shareholders in order to be exempt from paying corporate income tax

6. REIT must be transferable and must be held by a minimum of 100 persons

7. No more than 50% of REIT may be held by 5 or few persons (this has changed at the Revenue Reconciliation Act 1993).

（前言延伸）

There are 3 types of REITs – equity REITs, mortgage REITs and hybrid REITs. EREITs invest directly into real estates and generate their return through rental payments and gains from property sales. The debt level of equity REITs is on average around 35% of the book value of total assets. MREITs are portfolios of real estate loans. HREIT is a mix of an equity and mortgage REITs. 90% of the REIT market is equity REITs. There are also private REITs which are not registered with the Stock Exchange or non exchange traded REITs that do file with the SEC. There are 21 countries that have established REITs with the UK joining on board in January 2007.

（主段:正面觀點或交叉對比觀點）

Main advantages for REITs are tax transparency and liquidity. REITs can deduct its dividends from its corporate tax bill so effectively REITs become tax transparent to investors. The most attractive or striking feature of REITs lies in the fact that shares of these companies are traded on major stock exchanges. This offers investors greater liquidity than they get through direct investment or through non-listed property funds. This sets REITs apart from traditional real estate investment.

However, consequentially REITs combine the aspects of an investment in real estate and stocks. It has high correlation with stocks and bonds and higher volatility than private real estate. Key issue is while their underlying asset is real estate, they are valued as stocks.

Today, most of the REITs are internally managed. Capozza (2005) reported that externally advised REITs fell from 48% in 1986 to 10% in 2005. There is also a trend of seeing more property type specialised REITs as these offer management expertise, investors wish to make their own diversification decisions and stock market can understand and analyse these more easily (Geltner and Miller 2001). This view is supported by Ro and Ziobrowski (2010).

REITs are appearing to “investors” as they offer individual investors fractional shares in investment grade and professionally managed income producing real estate investment, they offer regular income stream, high dividend yield, liquidity (easier entry and exit), less transaction costs and access to broad capital markets.

REIT also offer “property owners” a more efficient way of selling their properties to recoup capital investment, allowing orderly divestiture of real estate assets and redeploy capital on core business, no double taxation, strong corporate governance, and act as a defensive stock or provide a hedge in bad times.

There are at least two to three fundamental comparisons leading to the conclusion that REITs are representative of the commercial real estate market.

1. Geographic representation: REITs have assets across all property types and across all geographical regions. 

2. Long term performance: REITs in the long term (25 years span) perform the same as the private real estate (REIT 8.15% and Private 7.2%).

3. Correlation with shares: Brueggeman and Fisher (1997) report a correlation coefficient of 0.69 between equity REITs and shares for the period 1978 – 1994. When REITs are degeared, correlation coefficient between REITs returns and stock returns decrease. Note: correlation of EREITs is always stronger with small cap value stocks than both types of growth stocks. Correlation with direct real estate is getting stronger over time.

From an institutional investor perspective, direct property in a buy and hold portfolio is likely to provide inflation protection plus a positive real rate of return if a sufficiently long time horizon is chosen. REIT on the other hand has limited hedge against inflation. Some studies show that REITS do not offer a hedge against unexpected inflation. It may magnify purchasing power losses over short holding periods.

If we looked at having REITs or direct property in a Mixed Asset Portfolio, REIT does have positive role to play in diversifying mixed asset portfolios. Mueller (1994) indicated adding REITs to portfolios would yield an annual increase in returns of between 12 and 168 basis points. Lee and Stevenson (2005) looked at REIT by using efficient frontier and found REIT consistently provides diversification benefits to the MAP with substantial allocation in efficient portfolios. The benefits increase if the horizon is expanded. Benefits would be return enhancement and risk reduction.

As investors move along the frontier, the rationale behind the inclusion of REITs alters, with increasing emphasis being placed on the assets risk reduction qualities rather than its return enhancing capabilities. This trend probably arises from two key issues:

1. The low correlations relative to both asset classes: REIT has lower correlations with the general equity indices
2. REITs effectively sit between the board equity and fixed income sectors with both risk and return measures in between stocks and bonds

If we looked at the performance between REIT and Private Real Estate, for commercial real estate, in the long term, their returns are similar. However, because the primary public and private benchmarks have modestly different constituents (NCREIF Index includes office, retail, industrial and residential), we would expect some differences in returns, particular in the short term, which it suggests that both REIT and private real estate may be attractive additions in MAP. 

（引述專家學者的論文與發表年份）

Mueller and Mueller (2003) show that even if the optimal portfolios already contained real estate from the private market a holding in REITs would still lead to improvements in portfolio performance. Using quarterly data over the period from 1987-2001, Feldman (2003) finds the both public and private real estate have a place in MAP with 15% allocation to REITs and a 30% allocation to private property.

Lee and Stevenson (2005) using quarter data from 1980 to 2004 and found that optimum MAP already containing private real estate have little place for public real estate securities, especially in low risk portfolios and for longer investment horizons. Additionally MAP with public real estate also see the allocations to REITs diminished or eliminated if private real estate is also considered.

（結尾）

In summary, investors looked at REITs as a panacea to all problems with private real estate (illiquidity and large lot sizes) with REIT appear to offer all of the portfolio diversification advantages of private real estate without disadvantages of illiquidity.

However, with small adjustments to the other asset classes in MAP considered and changes in the length of holding period, show that private real estate is always part of MAP, REITs are always eliminated.

However, for small investors with longer horizon investments, REIT may provide access to real estate. With great care and respect, REIT may reduce or replace private real estate. We would say that REIT is not an effective hedge again inflation (but it’s improved since 1993) and it’s a small investiable universe (comparing to private real estate ½ of the world’s wealth). REITs do offer good returns especially the income. Diversification wise, It is good for small investors with long holding periods but it is not so good as REIT correlates with small cap stocks.

（總字數）

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這樣的初稿雖然不盡完美，但是已經漸漸地接近了改分老師的理想給分標準。文章中看到了前言、前言延伸、主題、正反觀點或對比觀點、數據資料、專家學者的論文引述與年份，最後再來一個結尾，這樣的話，多練習幾次，在考場上就比較能夠輕鬆地發揮了。我建議第一版草稿可以用電腦打字，但是考前記得一定要模擬考試的情況與環境，試著用筆在五十分鐘內寫完一千六百字的申論文，一次寫兩道題型！這樣練習才會逼真、有效！